GREAT POWER COMPETITION (GPC)
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The liberal world order designed at the end of World War II helped maintain a stable international system for the past seven decades. It is now challenged by rising powers, alternative governance institutions, and non-state actors.
In recent years, tensions between the United States and China have introduced new challenges—especially related to economic and defense issues. China is a major trading partner for the United States but it is also developing its military capabilities, which poses challenges to the U.S. military.
“ China and Russia now seek to remake the international order to create a world conducive to their highly personalized and repressive type of autocracy”1
Shifts in the relative power between states and the overall balance of power in the international system can drive Great Power to wars and an all-out conflict between the world’s most powerful countries could be the worst thing to ever happen to humanity.
China is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to advance that objective. Russia poses an immediate and ongoing threat to the regional security order in Europe and it is a source of disruption and instability globally but it lacks the across-the-spectrum capabilities of China.
In this section, we will follow closely the US-China relationship.
Remy Mauduit
Mauduit Study Forums
1 Office of the President, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, October 2022, NSS’s first part, entitled “The Competition for What Comes Next.”
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Xi’s Cautious Inching Towards the China Dream
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) stated ambition to ensure the nation’s revitalization, also called the “China Dream,” now lies two decades away. How do Chinese leaders intend to navigate the intervening years? Will China act cautiously or aggressively to realize its aims? Many observers fear China may become belligerent due to overconfidence, insecurity, or other reasons. Graham Allison and others have warned that an increasingly powerful China might chance a war to secure international leadership. Some experts have argued Beijing might risk military aggression to stave off the country’s diminishing prospects. Beijing’s ambition to “reunify” with Taiwan, according to other observers, could lead it to risk conflict with the United States. Not all observers agree with such belligerent predictions. But the debate continues in part due to the opaque nature of Chinese decision-making under an increasingly autocratic Xi Jinping.
Behind the breakdown in US-China relations
At the 2023 SIEPR Economic Summit, experts on U.S.-China relations discussed how the two countries got to this point and where they’re headed next.
It’s getting harder to see common ground in the increasingly rocky relationship between the United States and China. But according to Scott Kennedy, a longtime authority on China’s economic policy and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the world’s two biggest economies share one important trait today: Both are stuck in their own echo chambers.
What’s behind the increasingly rocky relationship between the United States and China? And where are they headed next? A panel of experts weighs in on the simmering cold war and the echo chamber challenges of both countries.
Modern Diplomacy and the New World Order
There is no doubt that the international order is currently in a state of transition. The changes experienced seem to be the most significant in the past few hundred years. This assumption is predicated upon an objective fact — never before in the history of international politics has it included so many participants with different historical and cultural backgrounds. This means that we are not talking about another redistribution of power within a limited circle of states but about a new distribution of power, capabilities, and influence within a wider-than-ever circle of participants.
Managing Crises between the U.S. and China: A Conversation with Xin Qiang and Dennis Wilder
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Professor Xin Qiang and Professor Dennis Wilder to discuss how the U.S. and China could manage potential crises from elevated military activities. Both speakers emphasize that tensions between the U.S. and China are at a new high due to increased levels of strategic competition and neither side is well-prepared to handle a military collision or accident. Professor Wilder explains quiet diplomacy is critical for managing crises and cultural differences between the U.S. and China should always be considered to prevent miscommunication. Professor Xin notes that U.S. military activity to challenge normal Chinese military exercises is viewed differently than U.S. activities to challenge PRC activities aimed at countering “sensitive” U.S. or Taiwan activities. The latter would be viewed as much more hostile by the Chinese side. On an ending note, they both agree that the establishment of communication channels is essential to de-escalate potential future crises.
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